Blog Post Bit Seven
Let’s Face It - There’s Going to be a Doctor Shortage for a LONG Time
No matter what our Federal or Provincial Governments do, there will be a shortage of doctors in Canada for at least the next ten years. In a recent story from RBC (see in my news section), Canada is projected to have a shortage of approximately 44,000 physicians by 2028. It seems high to me, but the fact remains that physician shortages are here to stay. While our governments actively recruit foreign-trained doctors, there simply aren’t enough foreign-trained doctors looking to come to Canada to eliminate our shortage.
Australia, the UK and the USA also have physician shortages, and all of them are actively recruiting physicians worldwide. According to a recent American Association of Medical Colleges study, the USA will face a shortage of between 40,800 and 104,900 physicians by 2030.
The math is bleak even if we only look at Canada, Australia, the UK and the USA. Combined, these four countries will be short more than 200,000 by 2030. Based on this prediction, Canada cannot expect to solve its doctor shortage by recruiting more foreign-trained physicians.
The reality is that access to primary care is the cornerstone of Canada’s universal healthcare system. Without access to primary care, the entire system cannot function optimally or even close to it.
With this in mind, provincial governments around the country are trying new ways to provide access to primary care for Canadians. Ontario has recently expanded the scope of practice for pharmacists to assess and prescribe medications for minor illnesses and injuries. Alberta and Nova Scotia have already done this. BC uses nurse practitioners to staff community walk-in clinics where family physicians are in short supply. Doctors must face the fact that access to primary care cannot be limited only to them, as there likely will not be enough family physicians to meet the needs of Canadians for the foreseeable future.
What needs to happen next is for doctors to embrace this change and ensure that their compensation packages are adjusted to reflect the fact that their caseload will change dramatically. Family physicians will no longer see Canadians with minor illnesses or injuries. In all likelihood, those patients will be seen by their local pharmacist or a nurse practitioner at the local walk-in clinic.
Provincial medical boards should understand that this will happen. They should start planning to ensure that the most precious component in Canada’s universal healthcare system, the family physician, is adequately compensated for the changes that are certain to come!
